Elevating Air Force efficiency through innovative data management

  • Published
  • By Sheridan Fidelman
  • 377th Air Base Wing Public Affairs
KIRTLAND AIR FORCE BASE, N.M. --  

The concept of Monte Carlo simulation involves a mathematical approach to anticipate potential outcomes within uncertain events. Employed by computer programs, this technique analyzes historical data to forecast a spectrum of future results based on data that is input into the simulation.

Since its inception, Monte Carlo Simulations have proven invaluable in evaluating risk impacts across various real-world scenarios and now, it finds application in the work of Staff Sgt. Francis Licari at the 58th Maintenance Squadron on Kirtland. Leveraging his expertise in computer programming, Licari harnessed the power of Monte Carlo Simulation to revolutionize a laborious task, effectively automating processes to optimize his unit's aerial operations efficiency.

“To shed light on the origins of this development, it's important to note my previous role as a flight scheduler involved laborious work entering flight data, often taking up considerable time,” Licari said.

After attending a Google Analytics course, Licari became acquainted with the capabilities of the Monte Carlo method. Upon returning, he dedicated two weeks to crafting formulas and coding. Demonstrating remarkable resilience, Licari managed to complete the simulation for his unit mere days before his wife welcomed their first child.

The Monte Carlo Simulation that Licari created allows the 58th MXS the ability to anticipate their aircraft's capabilities, range, flight viability, and historical performance.

Currently, the application of this simulation is limited to Kirtland, yet Licari's enthusiasm drives his desire to introduce his innovative creation for broader application in the Air Force.

"An automated solution such as this simulation greatly mitigates the risk of errors, saves valuable time for the Air Force, and addresses manpower challenges. I think everyone in our career field and the Air Force would greatly benefit from this,” Licari said.

Licari’s innovative Monte Carlo Simulator has great potential to assist the Air Force with maintenance scheduling across flying wings.  His simulator is just one example of the initiative the Air Force expects from its future enlisted leaders.